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May 9, 2013

I don’t like predictions; I don’t like most of the predictions I read and I don’t like making predictions. But since we seem to be obsessed with them, I’m going to play the game just this one time. First, I predict my prediction will be wrong. With that disclaimer, here goes nothing (literally)!

In a 2011 blog post I ran the February 1999 Time magazine cover with the mugs of Greenspan, Rubin and Summers on the cover over the declaration, “The Committee to Save the World.”   I shared that this cover was one of the defining moments for me to begin speaking and writing about concerns over our economic and monetary policies. I predicted that Greenspan and company would go down in history as the committee to destroy the world, not save the world. So far we are only part way there. Greenspan, under some very pointed questions about his monetary policies and related theories after  the 2008 financial meltdown, finally confessed that he had a “flaw” in his theory. Wow, what a confession! Seriously, this could be the understatement of the century — maybe since the fall of Rome! But, I digress. Almost exactly one year after this remarkably poorly timed cover ran, our markets began the first of our recent meltdowns when tech stocks imploded, taking other investments with it.

Now Bernanke graces the April Atlantic cover with a very bold title “THE HERO.”  Wow!!! WOW!!! REALLY?!? I have to believe our fate has now been sealed. Strictly based on the impeccable timing of Time’s cover, I give us a year from the April 2013 date of the Atlantic cover. How is that for analytics? Let’s predict our economic future by poorly timed magazine covers. One more prediction — both of these covers will be printed in our grandchildren’s history books showing just what idiots we were leading up to various economic calamities that they (our grandchildren) will  still be dealing with decades from now.

A year from now I may be eating crow as the DOW continues to set new records; there is no sign of high inflation; everyone who wants a job has a job; credit markets are running like a fine, oiled machine; Europe has made a remarkable recovery; massive debt and derivatives proved not to matter; the recovery has been so good that the middle-class baby boomers found a way to retire after all; and Paul Krugman was right all along and the future is full and bright for us, our kids and even our grandkids. If this, or even a part of this, proves to be true,

I will have to admit that I have a flaw in my economic theory. And I will wonder why I ever got sucked into making such a stupid prediction!

The Committee to Save the World

The Hero

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