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Some colleagues of mine recently convinced me to become a “blogger.” I think their real motivation is to allow me another place to vent about our financial crisis and those controlling our monetary policy so they don’t have to listen to me quite so much. What you should always remember is that everyone thinks his or her opinion matters most. In the world of finance and economics you can multiply this thought by 100, or maybe even 1,000. The point is, there is no shortage of economic commentators and bloggers who think they give incredibly gifted advice or analysis. I understand, as should you, that my opinion is just one more opinion and it is my desire that you read it as much for entertainment as you do for content.  

Because I follow the economy so much, I am often asked by individuals how they should invest money. I am extremely hesitant to offer investment advice and do not feel qualified to do so. I have learned the hard way that investing is not just about being correct in your analysis — it is also about being correct in your timing. While I have obvious concerns about our economic future, probably the best advice I have ever given is not to underestimate just how much our central banks and various government entities will try to manipulate the economy through monetary policy and political policy. These interventions over this past decade have been amazing to watch, and not in a good way! There are many bright analysts and economists who have correctly assessed our economic situation, but have underestimated the effect of the artificial manipulation by those in control of monetary policy.

What I am attempting to say is that I may at times pretend to know what I am talking about, but I have learned long ago to avoid making predictions because the economy and financial markets will make a fool out of anyone who attempts to predict them. My viewpoints are always from a macroeconomic and long-term position. I have a conservative and contrarian bias, which means I believe risk and leverage are grossly underestimated by the markets.  

If I were asked why am I writing a blog when there are already too many blogs about financial markets and the economy — and they are all worth a ‘dime-a-dozen’ — I might try to justify myself by noting that I think my perspective is a little unique in that I focus on our problems stemming from decades of poor economic policies and financial practices. In other words, current and future monetary policies cannot fix what we have done to ourselves over the past three or four decades — they can only prolong and deepen the ultimate natural course our economy will take to cleanse itself in the long run.

Always remember when you read something I have posted it is normally because I need to vent my frustration, so read my blogs with a touch of levity. As important as this subject may be, always remember that I do not take myself too seriously!

You can email me at theeconomiccontrarian (at) gmail (dot) com.

One Comment leave one →
  1. Jason Shelter permalink
    November 16, 2015 12:31 pm

    RE: Pension Envy and taking the offensive against it

    I recently read an article in Money magazine (November 2015) that took a contrarian view of our country’s current retirement method (401k, IRA, etc.) and how it is essentially failing to provide an adequate retirement for most Americans. The subject of the interview in this article (Teresa Ghilarducci) proposes a universal add-on to Social Security of 5% of salary (split 50-50 between workers and employers) to create a mandatory retirement account. The money would go into low cost index funds, to create a post-retirement nest egg to be used in conjunction with Social Security. This article got me thinking about pushing for better retirement security for the average working American (possibly like the one Ms. Ghilarducci proposes), as a counter-offensive against the pension grab attacking government workers currently taking place. What do you think?

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